OSINT Analysis: Long Range Missiles and Hezbollah

With an estimated 90% of required intelligence available open source, it is imperative that intelligence analysts become

adept at mining open sources–and Recorded Future can help! Today, we take a look at the reported transfer of Scud missiles from Syria to Hezbollah and what open source intelligence is/was available to verify or at least could have helped predict the event took place.

First we’ll look at Recorded Future Capturing Disclosure of Hezbollah possession of Long Range Missiles:

On 21 MAR 2010 Israeli President Shimon Peres — who claims second hand access — reports the transport of Scud missiles from Syria to Hezbollah. This represents a marked escalation of tensions as Scuds have the ability to strike deep in Israeli territory. Here we’ve searched for Hezbollah, all events occurring in last 12 months

Looking back on the disclosure by Peres of the transfer,  a Recorded Future analysis of open statements by Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah may have offered verification.

Quotes by Hezbollah leadership captured by Recorded Future showing possible possession of long range missiles:

• Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah’s rhetoric begins to include references for striking targets deep in Israel ( most notable: Tel Aviv Airport and Israeli warships at sea).

This is very important if true. Historically, Hezbollah has only been able to target towns in northern Israel from the Bakaa Valley or warships close to the coast/in port.  Given that Tel Aviv is almost 300 km away, this would represent a major upgrade in long range missiles. This rhetoric, though unconfirmed may be the first indicator that talks of a SCUD transfer were accurate…

In the last 60 days, Nasrallah’s rhetoric has become even more pointed — overtly suggesting that it does indeed possess longer range missiles. He even went as far as to suggest that Hezbollah now has the capability to inflict damage on a similar scale as the most powerful military in the Middle East (Israel). This appears to be a clear indication of the acquisition of more advanced weapons.

Nasrallah also talks of direct targeting (hitting what you aim for) which is outside the capability of a SCUD and could lend credibility to the reports that Hezbollah has recieved the more advanced Iranian made Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missile–which have much better targeting capabilities. Below is a quote from Nasrallah regarding direct targeted as captured by RF:

Here we quickly analyze Nasrallah person network over the last 30 days. Notice the spike in online momentum (curve at the top).

As you can see, a little open source research can go a long way! Not only did Recorded Future accurately record the disclosure by the Israeli government of Hezbollah’s acquisition of long range missiles, it also recorded the official Hezbollah response– which may showed strong evidence the transfer claim was accurate. Open source intelligence with Recorded Future can provide a low cost, high value tool that can supplement satellite imagery, covert sources and other traditional intelligence platforms!